Fig. 8 · beattheclose

BeatTheClose

BeatTheClose is a sports analytics project focused on quantifying betting edges and tracking whether decisions outperform the market close. It was built as a practical way to apply probabilistic thinking and structured decision rules. The work is a Python player-props analysis workflow, and it tracks closing-line value as the feedback signal for each decision.

Role

Self-directed analytics project

Type

Quantitative analysis / decision support

Stack

Python, EV calculation, Kelly sizing, CLV tracking

What was built

A Python player-props analysis workflow.
Expected value and Kelly sizing calculated for each candidate bet.
Closing-line value tracked as a feedback signal.
Repeatable quantitative rules, rather than a decision made on intuition.
A record for evaluating each decision against the later market movement.

Fig. 8. The loop BeatTheClose measures: a player prop priced, a decision taken on expected value and Kelly sizing, and the closing line that later shows how the decision met the market.

No public link — BeatTheClose runs locally, so there is no public URL for it.